[Leica] IMG: Nathan's PAW 12: Paris, wine and song

[jayanand at gmail.com (Jayanand Govindaraj)]

Nothing new. Every country with geopolitical power does it. Interfering in
elections is something the USA has a long and chequered history of doing.
By all accounts, the last administration engineered an uprising in
Bangladesh, ending in a change of government with a puppet installed as
head of state, which has backfired spectacularly, making the country waltz
into China's hands, and bringing out all the Islamic extremists out of the
woodwork. Every US government interferes in every Indian election, leaking
information detrimental to the government, and funding the opposition of
the day to sow some uncertainty and chaos. I have personally seen, in my
backyard, that USAID was one of the conduits for this activity in the third
world, so I, personally, am glad it is being shuttered.

As far as positioning goes, recessions, high volatility and bear markets
are part of every economic cycle - that they will occur is always a
question of "when", never of "if". In addition, market tops and bottoms are
only obvious in hindsight, and never in real time, so trying to catch them
is impossible, you can only fluke it once or twice in a lifetime - and it
is completely down to luck, not the investor's innate genius! ? It is also
impossible to figure out which straw will eventually break the markets
back, so it is futile to hunt for reasons. It becomes critical to
anticipate and position oneself well before the event, wait patiently, and
mentally be ready for a 20% paper loss in the short term. I had positioned
myself for a stock market crash in the USA five years ago (pre covid days)
by buying Gold ETFs, which has worked out very well, netting a US$ adjusted
return of over 100% over this period. Of course there is a risk, but, hey,
taking no risk would entail minimum reward! My next step would be to go
long on the US equity market, buying in parcels of 10% of my total
allocated investment over the next year, through an appropriate ETF. For
Indians, ETFs listed in Singapore give a far more tax efficient investment
route than investing directly in the USA, so that is probably the route I
will take. I seldom invest via derivatives, because I hate leverage on
volatile investments, and use them to only hedge positions when it is not
tax efficient to sell the underlying asset.

Cheers
Jayanand

On Mon, Apr 7, 2025 at 5:40?AM Douglas Barry <imra at iol.ie> wrote:

> I'm quite agreed about not getting stressed out, Jayanand, and the only
> time I take to the streets is for street photography. However, Mr Musk does
> seem to like interfering in other countries' elections which is something I
> take a dim view of.
>
> Anyway, looking at stock futures, if the tariffs stick, when will it be
> the time to buy? If the White House blinks and rescinds on Tuesday, the
> answer could be tomorrow.
>
> Trying to avoid the bears
> Douglas
>
> On 06/04/2025 03:30, Jayanand Govindaraj via LUG wrote:
>
> Douglas,
> Firstly, it has always been my principle that it is a mug's game to get
> stressed out about things that are not under my direct control. I am not
> one to take to the streets - instead I look at ways to position myself in
> the markets to try and profit from any situation.
>
> To answer one of your questions, I definitely approve of the attempt to
> reduce the governmental and bureaucratic footprint, and to send illegal
> immigrants back. We suffer from both these malaises to an even greater
> extent, and I have seen, first hand, the havoc they cause. Whether the
> method that the present administration has used is a reasonable one is, of
> course, a moot point.
>
> India is a domestically focused economy, and not an export led one, so it
> will feel the effects of the tariff less than most. Again, India has not
> done too badly out of the tariffs. International trade is all about having
> a competitive advantage. All our competitors for the goods we export to the
> USA (China, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, etc) have had higher rates of
> duty slapped on them relative to us, giving us a small, but meaningful
> competitive advantage in the short to medium term, because, obviously, USA
> has to keep buying from other countries, as the mythical additional
> capacity is created in the USA (if ever) - this holds true as long as the
> tariffs are not reversed tomorrow, which is quite possible. It will be
> terrible for the USA, and even worse for China, after their mindless, face
> saving retaliatory tit for tat measures that they have taken. The real risk
> is that the USA and China slip into recession at the same time, which would
> see considerable pain worldwide.
>
> India is also ahead of most in resolving the issue, because, realising the
> reality of Trump's election promises, the country initiated formal trade
> talks with the USA which have been ongoing for the last two months. These
> situations have to be handled proactively, and not by ranting, raving and
> calling others names. They are a reality, whether we like it or not.
>
> By the way, in order to brighten your day, a small aside. I was talking to
> a few friends in the finance industry in the USA last night, and they
> indicated that US assets now carry a "moron risk premium"! ?
>
> Cheers
> Jayanand
>
> On Sun, Apr 6, 2025 at 3:30?AM Douglas Barry <imra at iol.ie> <imra at 
> iol.ie> wrote:
>
>
> Jayanand, no one should have to put up with Musk. The man is a menace to
> society.
>
> It's not impossible that his and Trump's cuts in the veterans' area will
> cause problems for the pair of them with a large group of people who
> don't shoot cameras, but guns. The Trump parade of bulletproof cars for
> his golf bags will help to keep him safer, but Elon better start
> bulletproofing his Tesla.
>
> As for the EU, it has plenty of wine and needs people like Nathan and me
> to drink it. However, the same organisation has reduced friction and
> increased co-operation over here after centuries of wars, which is
> probably why Krasnov's boss Putin has been trying to undermine it for
> years. Indeed, I'm surprised that you could even mention Musk without
> spitting. Don't tell me you're a fan of 26% tariffs! India was beggared
> by the British, so I can't see it rolling over like a lap dog for the
> Americans.
>
> Mind you, I somehow doubt that Americans are going let themselves be
> beggared by tariffs either. US Luggers, get your new Leica gear quickly.
>
> Douglas
>
> On 05/04/2025 17:18, Jayanand Govindaraj via LUG wrote:
>
> The event looks like bureaucracy on steroids! Looks like the EU could do
> with a DOGE! Good thing Musk was not there to see all of you quaffing the
> wine....?
>
> Cheers
> Jayanand
>
> On Sat, Apr 5, 2025 at 11:08?AM Nathan Wajsman via LUG <
>
> lug at leica-users.org>
>
> wrote:
>
>
> A nice week started with close to 4 days in France, and once back in the
> office, a wine tasting and a choir performance. I have previously
>
> showed my
>
> Paris gallery, but the weekly blog is more about the people with whom I
> spent the week. Even a former UK prime minister pops up.
> https://www.fotocycle.dk/paws/?page_id=4612
>
> As always, comments and critique are welcome and appreciated.
>
> Nathan
>
>
>
>